Online Sales Expected To Increase 6 To 8 Percent This Holiday Season, NRF Says

As retailers are gearing up for a holiday sales surge, the National Retail Federation announced Thursday that it expects sales to increase 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion in November and December, down slightly from last year’s robust increase of 4.1 percent over 2013. Online sales are once again expected outpace overall growth, increasing between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.

The NRF estimates holiday sales will account for approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s total annual sales of $3.2 trillion. These estimates exclude autos, gas and restaurant sales.

“With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we’re heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We expect families to spend prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago.”

“Price, value and even timing will all play a role in how, when, where and why people shop over the holiday season,” said Shay. “Retailers will be competitive not only on price, but on digital initiatives, store hours, product offerings and much more.”

NRF’s holiday sales forecast takes into account indicators such as consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. Forecasts include the non-store category which covers direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.