Holiday ecommerce spending hits $79.7 billion before Cyber Week even begins

Consumers didn’t wait for Black Friday or Cyber Monday to open their wallets this year. U.S. shoppers have already spent $79.7 billion online from Nov. 1 to Nov. 23—a 7.5% jump over last year’s pace, according to new Adobe Analytics data.

What’s fueling the early spend? A potent mix of strategic early discounts, mobile convenience, flexible payment options and an unexpected digital assistant: generative AI.

Despite the early splurge, the deepest discounts will be next week. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to feature electronics markdowns as steep as 29%, while Black Friday will see top savings on TVs (23%), toys (27%) and appliances (18%). Thanksgiving Day itself is shaping up as the best time to buy sporting goods, with average discounts of 19%.

Shoppers seem to know what’s coming—49% of surveyed consumers said they expect the best deals on Black Friday.

Shoppers “trade up” while BNPL and mobile spending surge

Holiday shoppers aren’t just spending more—they’re also spending smarter. Adobe found that more consumers are “trading up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics (+32%), sporting goods (+36%) and home improvement tools (+17%).

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is playing a key role, driving $6.1 billion in online spending so far—a 10.3% YoY increase. Adobe expects BNPL to hit $1.04 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Notably, 82.4% of BNPL spending is occurring on mobile.

Dig deeper: Marketers navigating low consumer confidence amid high holiday sales

In fact, mobile continues to dominate, accounting for 51.9% of all online sales so far this season ($41.3 billion). Adobe forecasts mobile sales to reach a record $142.7 billion across November and December.

Generative AI becomes a holiday shopping companion

For the first time, generative AI is having a material impact on retail traffic. Adobe reports a 1,300% YoY surge in AI-powered traffic to U.S. retail sites, with shoppers arriving via tools like AI chatbots and search assistants.

Consumers using AI are 30% more likely to convert, according to Adobe. Nearly half of respondents (48%) have used or plan to use AI this season for inspiration and product research, especially in the categories of toys, gaming and electronics. Although still a small channel, 81% of AI users report that it has improved their experience.

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What’s hot: electronics, furniture and home upgrades

The top spending categories include electronics ($17.7 billion), apparel ($14.8 billion), furniture ($9.7 billion) and groceries ($8 billion). But the real growth is in home upgrades. Online sales of refrigerators and freezers are up 106%, exercise equipment up 102% and smart home items up 80%.

Holiday décor is also booming (up 108% YoY), along with gift cards (+85%), puzzles and board games (+81%) and wearable tech like activity trackers (+131%) and smartwatches (+85%).

Social platforms are playing a bigger role this year, with revenue driven by social media up 29% YoY. Influencers matter: 53% of shoppers have considered or bought something based on their recommendations. Still, email and paid search remain reliable conversion channels.