Adobe forecasts 4.8% growth YoY in online holiday spending

Adobe predicts strong growth YoY in ecommerce for the 2023 holiday season. Plus, mobile hits a major milestone.

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This year’s holiday season, running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, will see 4.8% growth YoY in online spending. Adobe Analytics bases its forecasts on data from one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

Adobe expects over $220 billion in online sales this year. Buy Now Pay Later is expected to drive some $17 billion in sales, a dramatic increase of 16.9% over 2022.

More forecasts. Adobe also released insights into the likely brand winners this season, leading product categories, discounts and the role of mobile, as well as a specific forecast for Cyber Week.

  • Winning brands this year include LEGO Minifigures, Kanoodle 3D and anything representing Barbie the Movie.
  • Electronics, apparel, furniture and home goods, groceries and toys will drive more than half the overall ecommerce spend this year.
  • Record discounts up to 35% off listed prices are also forecast, especially during Cyber Week.
  • A foreseeable but nonetheless major milestone: Mobile will beat desktop for the first time as the preferred channel for online shopping.
  • Cyber Week alone will drive $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4% YoY and representing 16.8% of the holiday season.

The holiday season as defined by Adobe comes on the heels of another major online shopping event, Amazon’s Prime Days in October.

Why we care. We’re struck by the role played by groceries. Pre-lockdown, who bought groceries online? It looks like we started but never stopped, with food now ranking alongside traditional ecommerce rainmakers like electronics and clothes.

Also, perhaps to state the obvious, consumers may speak about low confidence in the economy, but they are still reaching for their virtual pocketbooks.

Dig deeper: A look ahead to Amazon’s Prime Big Deals Days

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About the author

Kim Davis
Kim Davis is currently editor at large at MarTech. Born in London, but a New Yorker for almost three decades, Kim started covering enterprise software ten years ago. His experience encompasses SaaS for the enterprise, digital- ad data-driven urban planning, and applications of SaaS, digital technology, and data in the marketing space. He first wrote about marketing technology as editor of Haymarket’s The Hub, a dedicated marketing tech website, which subsequently became a channel on the established direct marketing brand DMN. Kim joined DMN proper in 2016, as a senior editor, becoming Executive Editor, then Editor-in-Chief a position he held until January 2020. Shortly thereafter he joined Third Door Media as Editorial Director at MarTech.

Kim was Associate Editor at a New York Times hyper-local news site, The Local: East Village, and has previously worked as an editor of an academic publication, and as a music journalist. He has written hundreds of New York restaurant reviews for a personal blog, and has been an occasional guest contributor to Eater.

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