Adobe Predicts Online Holiday Sales To Hit Record $83B, Cyber Monday To Generate $3B

After last year’s record-breaking holiday season, Adobe predicts 2015 will grow even more, with total online spending during the holiday season to reach an all-time high of $83 billion — an 11-percent year-over-year increase.

According to the Adobe Digital Index 2015 Holiday Shopping Predictions, this year’s Cyber Monday online sales will see a 12- percent year-over-year increase, climbing to a record $3 billion in one day.

The biggest jump will happen on Thanksgiving Day, reports Adobe, forecasting online sales to be up 18 percent year over year at $1.6 billion on the holiday. The following day — Black Friday — is expected to generate $2.7 billion in sales.

Adobe’s Online Holiday Sales Predictions

Adobe says for the first time ever, the majority — 51 percent — of online shopping visits on Thanksgiving Day will happen on mobile, with 29 percent of online sales that day happening on a mobile device — up 12 percent year over year.

Adobe’ Holiday Mobile Activity Predictions

Looking at the full holiday season, Adobe says 11 percent of ecommerce will happen on a phone, and nine percent on tablets. The report also broke down numbers by type of mobile device, predicting iOS to drive 22 percent of online holiday sales, while Android will represent seven percent.

Adobe says iPhone users are 23 percent more likely to make purchases on their smartphone than Android users.

The report also predicts what part social will play in this holiday season’s ecommerce activity. According to Adobe, social will only drive two percent of visits to retail websites during the holidays, with revenue per Facebook visit averaging $1.24, Pinterest $0.74 and Twitter $0.60.

Adobe says online shoppers will have the best chance of finding discounts this holiday season via display ads and social media. Search will be the least effective channel for finding holiday deals.

Best Online Channels To Find Holiday Discounts

Adobe says it has the most comprehensive report on the subject matter, claiming $7.50 of every $10.00 spent online with the top 100 US retailers go through the Adobe Marketing Cloud. Its 2015 shopping predictions are based on the evaluation of 55 million product SKUs, along with data from more than a trillion visits to 4,500 retail websites during the last seven years.

Overall, Adobe predicts this year’s holiday online sales in the US will account for 22 percent of the country’s total ecommerce activity in 2015.

Adobe’s Predictions For 2015 Online Holiday Sales

You can review the full 63-page Adobe report — which also includes predictions around the most popular online product purchases this holiday season, as well as international holiday ecommerce forecasts — here: Adobe Digital Index 2015 Holiday Shopping Predictions.